Fantasy Football auctions have to be the most fun 2-3 hours one can spend. So much of the season rides on those decisions. The auction has so much more potential for smashing success and dismal failure then a draft does. In an auction the price for any player is set by the market and when the market is 10-12 guys pounding beers it has the potential for wild variations. Meaning you can easily extremely overpay for a player or underpay and steal a player. When you do a draft these extremes just do not exist. Sure someone can reach for a player too early and another player can fall a little ways but the peak to valley difference in a draft no way approaches that of an auction. The other great part is because everyone is on equal footing you all have the some potential for success and failure. Where in a draft you may know a player has dropped way too far but if you are still 3 picks away and you can not act on it.
So with that preamble out of the way lets look at the 2010 fantasy football auction values produced by us as Fantasy Fortunes. The full list with player descriptions is at the website below. These values are based on a 10 team league with everyone starting with 0. If you are in a 12 team league take these numbers times 120% and I would also weight RB a little more heavily do to the diluted RB pool.
Atop the list is Chris Johnson , he finished strong and after the first several weeks was clearly the guy everyone wished they had. There is no reason to think he will not repeat next season. Every other RB has some level of baggage which Chris Johnson has none of.
Next is Adrian Peterson at , he is less for a reason, FUMBLES. This is a major problem and MN is getting tired of it. He is still the man and has huge upside but turnovers cost them the Superbowl and Peterson gets benched when he fumbles.
The next two MJD and Ray Rice are at and and I think could be the steal of the auction at that price. Both should have great years and have very limited baggage. Next is Turner at here is where the real baggage starts. The injury issue is a big deal but so are his TD totals. Big risk big reward potential.
I feel like there is a tier break here Frank Gore and Steven Jackson round out the top RBs at and both have good upside but both disappeared at times. Gore also seems to get nicked up each year.
Next we get into the WR's we like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald at and . Johnson gets the edge as he keeps his QB though both are animals and should produce good safe numbers.
Now we round out the 1st round of what would be a draft if your a caveman and still prefer drafting to auctions, we have Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Jamall Charles and DeAngelo Williams all for -. All have similar upside though I think the later two have the most. They all should be safe and do well but also have the potential for big games I think one of these 4 will finish in the top 3 of RBs for 2010. I like the idea of taking 2 of these guys and if they go at these prices and still have half my discretionary money left to round out my team.
The next WR on the list is Vincent Jackson at . Everyone knew this guy had it in him and he finally showed it. I would not be surprised if he is the #1 WR next year. Really like him and really like him at this price.
Now we get into the grab bag of WR, QB and RB we have Mendenhall, Wayne, Rodgers, Brees, Desean Jakson, and Brandon Marshall. All with tremendous upside albeit Mendenahall. Wayne scares me a little he disappeared at the end of last season, though losing the Superbowl makes me think Wayne and Manning come out next season with an air of "The last ride of Wyatt Earp and his immortals." Which brings us to Manning, Austin and Moss at . One WR on the way up the other on the way down. The only question is who would you rather have?
The level gives us Thomas Jones and Ronnie Brown. One guy who you think will get hurt (Jones) and one who is a lottery ticket winner if he does not (Brown). If your picking between these two the gambler takes Brown the guy who holds 95% bonds in his portfolio goes Jones. For me I would take Brown.
We take a price drop for Calvin Johnson and Beanie Wells. Both these guys are a throw of the dice though Megatron does OK even when a Junior College transfer is throwing him the ball, the only problem is I don't see the situation improving next year. If the Lions get a QB move him up the list. As for Wells if the job is his he could be huge. Training camp should be interesting here.
will get you your choice of Moreno or Boldin to be honest they both scare me. I could see either one having a terrible season though their upside warrants this price.
Addai That Superbowl may have moved him up a bit. I keep thinking OK this is his last good year. He and Thomas Jones surprise me every year. Next is the teir we have Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas and Tom Brady. I think Pierre has the most upside of the bunch but man do they throw a lot and with Bush still there I don't like it. This is officially the point where I will not allow myself to spend any less on my starting running backs. If I am being completely honest the lack of quality RBs in 2010 makes me sketchy about anything below the Ronnie Brown level. Tom Brady could be a good buy here if he returns to form. I think Kevin Smith benefits as well if the Lions get a real QB.
We drop again to the WR bin. Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Steve Smith. If Farve is back Rice is the best of the bunch if he is not then I like Smith the best if not only based on the Vikings game at the end of the season. He still has it and has great upside. Jennings and White scare me, I liked both of them a lot coming into 2009 and was very disappointed, with the year Rodgers had Jennings should have been a monster. Perhaps he will sync better with Rodgers next year.
gets you some sexy options Matt Schaub Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. All the sudden there are so many good plays at TE. If you are forced to play a TE in your league make sure you get Clark, Gates, Gonzo, Davis or Daniels. For me personally I'll leave Gonzo to someone else but the crop of TE is so good that you should not have to over pay: but don't get stuck without one of the elite.
Next we get Vernon Davis as good as the others just a cheaper.
The pool is all over the place Ochocinco, Rivers, Daniels (amazing value), Forte and Jonathon Stewart (minus for how he spells Jonathon). I really like Forte at this price. He has tremendous upside. I actually like Rivers at this price as well. I don't advocate spending a lot on QB since you can fish the waiver wire all season and do OK but I think you get good point separation over the waiver wire strategy with Rivers.
Rounding out the list at is Colston, Steve Smith, Holmes and Romo. Colston is the value of the bunch. He will go for more in your auction so if you really want him be prepared to drop or more. I fear Smith will not be the best WR on the Giants next season though that might be OK I just think Nicks could be great. Holmes is all over the place some love him some hate him so he will probably go for more but I think this is the right price. As for Romo I think the only reason he made the list was so we could make our peacock joke (see the list).
That is it. Check out the list at the website below.
